2017 RMB will be more worth it? Do not know, but China should be no problem with outbound travel
Xue Beibei (reproduced)
Last year, the three devaluation of the renminbi became a hot topic of extensive discussion, compared with the outbound travel in 2016, the growth rate is not expected at the beginning of the year, it is difficult not to combine the two together. Can the exchange rate fluctuate lead to a slowdown in the number of outbound trips? Or, in other words, is it just as intuitive, the exchange rate is the most important reason for the slowdown in exit travel?
If it is, 2017 wave of deceitful exchange rate market, how will affect this year's outbound travel industry? If not, what is the result of last year's situation, this year is to continue to slow down the trend or to pick up signs? Let us temporarily put aside the subjective assumptions and intuition, combined with the relevant institutions announced in 2016, as well as poor travel million users 12 years of accumulated data, take a look at the future outbound travel market what will happen.
1, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, outbound tourism market growth slowed down
Affected by the international economic situation, "811" exchange rate after the exchange rate market volatility, 2016 yuan against the US dollar fell 6.67%, the last trading day at 6.9370. From the beginning of the "people without derogatory base" to later "in or win" to become a year to ridicule the buzzwords, there are always some "dream or have to, in case of it" charm.
2016 early with the dollar is expected to increase interest rates, the domestic economic slowdown, the so-called active control of some of the early release of the risk means that the yuan so ushered in the first year of the sharp devaluation.
Followed by the United Kingdom off Europe, the global risk aversion rose to promote the positive appreciation of the dollar, and further squeeze the RMB exchange rate of space; Trump took office, the dollar rose all the way up, and the basket from peg to the dollar Pegged to SDR, the exchange rate fell again, the depreciation of the renminbi is expected to have been formed.
This change for a group of people looking at the most intuitive feeling is more and more worthless yuan, and abroad to read the baby every day a wake up to find the cost of some high, and plans to travel out of people watching the exchange rate also Continue to name their own small abacus.
At the same time, although the size of the entire outbound market continued to grow, but the growth rate in 2016 showed a significant slowdown. According to the latest data released by the China Tourism Research Institute, China's outbound tourism in 2016 reached 122 million people, equivalent to 330,000 visitors out of the country every day. But compared to 9.4% growth rate by 2015, the growth rate in 2016 was only 4.3%, the lowest level in the past six years.
Taking into account the 62% of China's outbound travel into the Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan region, and this part of the tourists in 2016 negative growth (-2.2%) directly drag the overall data, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan will inevitably become 2016 outbound tourism market poor performance Pot wan.
In fact, even excluding the impact of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, the growth rate of travel abroad fell from 33.8% to 18.2%, the same as the previous cycle. Various factors have shown that the 2016 exit market did appear to adjust.
Exchange rate and outbound tourism itself there is a subtle relationship, in 2016 both at the same time inevitably let people be linked together, then the exchange rate whether the impact of our consumers "go abroad, look at the world" behavior? The second part of this article tries to answer this question in a mathematical way.
2, the exchange rate on the outbound travel decision-making limited, "buy buy buy" is the main factor to enlarge
The US market to maintain steady growth, the depreciation of the renminbi does not affect the travel will
The dollar continued to strengthen from 2015, in the second half of 2016 by the US domestic election and other factors, coupled with the passive depreciation of the renminbi, the dollar against the RMB exchange rate in recent years, a new high. From the same period people travel to the United States data, the number of people only a year-on-year decline of 2 percentage points, and nearly three years year on year growth rates are stable at 15% to 20%.
Exchange rate and the number of outbound relationship Pearson coefficient of only 0.1815, showing that the depreciation of the yuan against the dollar did not affect the consumer's decision to travel to the United States.
In general, the destination for the US journey takes a long time and the customer unit price is higher, the consumer's decision is often long-term, low frequency. Therefore, consumers are unlikely to only because of the current exchange rate fluctuations, hastily decided to cancel their months ago began to arrange the travel plan.
Exchange rate led to increased shopping costs, direct inhibition of tourists growth in Japan
Starting from the second half of 2015, the annual growth rate of the traveler's turnover began to decline, from 130% in 2015 to 31% in 2016. The exchange rate is related to the number of outbound Pearson coefficients of 0.6849. On average, the exchange rate of the RMB against the Japanese yen is 1% higher, and the number of Chinese tourists arriving in Japan is correspondingly increased by 4.3% year on year (see appendix for details).
The depreciation of the renminbi against the yen directly raised the tourists in Japan, accommodation, tickets, transportation, shopping and other aspects of the cost. And Japan's electronic products and luxury goods with its excellent quality and exchange rate to bring the cost-effective, attracting a large number of shopping as one of the main purpose of the tourists.
These consumers are at a high level when the exchange rate, frequently travel, but in the relative depreciation of the renminbi to quickly dispel travel demand.
The UK market is affected by a number of factors, such as declining growth and non-exchange rate effects
As the British in 2016 off Europe, the pound can be described as all the way down, in the road is still worried about the EU economic problems, the tourism circle was happy to spend the flowers. For a time the major media played the "What to wait, go to the UK to travel it," the title, so that we all think that China's British people have to go abroad and a substantial increase.
However, through the data, in the third quarter of 2016, China's exit to the UK was down by 15.3%, and consumers did not increase their willingness to travel because of the appreciation of the renminbi. Reflected to the correlation, the exchange rate and exit Pearson coefficient of 0.1596, means that the RMB exchange rate against the pound, China will not be a significant impact on the number of people leaving the UK.
There are two possible reasons for this result. First, similar to travel products in the United States, travel to the UK usually takes longer, so consumer decisions are often long-term, low-frequency, and unlikely to be affected by short-term exchange rate fluctuations. Second, after the second half of 2015, Europe suffered frequent terrorist attacks, reducing the willingness of consumers to travel to Europe, resulting in the entire European exit market in 2016 the pace of growth slowdown.
Combined with the analysis of the four outbound markets in the United States, Japan, Thailand and the UK, we can see that the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on consumer decision-making is limited. Whether traveling to Europe and the United States for longer travel time and traveling to relatively low-cost Southeast Asian countries, consumers will not see exchange rate changes as an important factor in whether or not to travel.
But for many tourists trip to the purpose of "buy and buy" the Japanese tourism market, because the exchange rate fluctuations directly affect the main objective of consumer travel, so the exchange rate and the number of tourists in the Japanese market is closely related.
3, the exchange rate is expected to have been released or released, 2017 industry growth can be expected
2016 yuan against the dollar fell 6.67% of the central parity, in fact, has been ahead of the release of the market to raise interest rates on the Federal Reserve and Trump New Deal caused by the RMB exchange rate down expectations.
This year, the Fed did not raise the future rate hike path outlook and Trump medical reform failed, making the market expectations of the US dollar exchange rate tends to be cautious in the global economic and political landscape presents a large uncertainty in the context of the yen as Hedge assets sought after by the capital, we expect the exchange rate of RMB against the yen in 2017 may be slightly down.
According to the conclusion of the second part of this article, the yen exchange rate squeeze tourists to the Japanese shopping demand space, resulting in China's outbound tourism market in Japan continue to bear downward pressure. On the other hand, the Sade incident caused a considerable period of time for South Korea outbound winter, Japan and South Korea belong to China's neighbors, especially in the shopping needs of the two countries outbound tourism market there is a high degree of substitution, so you can foresee the Japanese market Will be part of the original intention to go to South Korea's outbound tourists.
These two forces offset each other, in general, we expect this year, Japan's outbound tourism market will maintain steady growth or even increase slightly. Poor travel can be outbound travel market in the next few months the number of free exercise, to make more accurate prejudgment, for the Japanese market forecast data to verify our judgment: 2017 travel in Japan, the increase in the number of 2016 and remained flat, Continue to keep the most popular outbound destination titles.
In addition to the Japanese outbound tourism market, the number of other destinations and the exchange rate fluctuations are not significant, the 2016 China outbound tourism market as a whole slowdown, mainly due to rapid rise in housing prices caused by the wealth of terror Attacks and political turmoil, Schengen fingerprint visa policy and many other factors.
The possibility of a large range of housing prices rose very little this year, after a series of terrorist attacks and the impact of political turmoil began to gradually eliminate, plus more and more outbound travel destination to China to provide more convenient visa policy, These fundamentals of the good news indicates that in 2017 China's outbound tourism market will gradually return to temperature.
Poor travel forecast data to verify this judgment, 2017 travel to the United States will maintain a steady growth rate, while the Nordic and Australasian travel is likely to show significant growth.
US outbound tourism market to maintain a stable growth rate. According to the forecast data of the poor travel, travel growth in the United States will continue to maintain a steady three-year trend, which in the summer will show a peak in the United States tourism.
European traditional outbound tourism destination boom or decline, but the Nordic tour market growth rate. According to the forecast data of the poor travel, France and Italy in 2017 from April to June trips and the same period in 2016, the same month the growth rate of -3% to 9%.
Relatively speaking, the Nordic market is attracting more tourists began to find the trip, which forecast data show that Norway and Finland 2017 in April to June travel trips in month by month, year on year growth rate higher than the overall growth rate, %the above.
Australia, New Zealand as a new destination there is a huge potential for development. Poor travel forecast New Zealand will reach a 40% year-on-year growth rate in the first half of 2017, and Australia will have a high growth rate of more than 20%.
New Zealand continued in 2016 to promote the strong efforts in China, continue to increase routes, lower ticket prices, New Zealand has been pulled to 3,000 yuan price stalls.
Southeast Asia is still a popular destination, but the growth rate is lower than the overall growth rate. Travelers in Thailand from April to June in 2017 will continue to remain high, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 9%, and 10% showing monthly increases, but below the overall average growth rate of 20%.
This is mainly because the Thai market development time is longer, the market tends to saturation, so the growth rate has slowed, but the entire Southeast Asian market in 2017 are likely to benefit from changes in the Korean market.